Metadata

• Authors: Mikko Aaltonen, Martti Kaila, Emily E. Nix
• Publication Date: December 2025
• Journal/Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
• URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w34547

Abstract

This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the impact of providing a guaranteed basic income on criminal perpetration and victimization. We analyze a nationwide randomized controlled trial that provided 2,000 unemployed individuals in Finland with an unconditional monthly payment of 560 Euros for two years (2017-2018), while 173,222 comparable individuals remained under the existing social safety net. Using comprehensive administrative data on police reports and district court trials, we estimate precise zero effects on criminal perpetration and victimization. Point estimates are small and statistically insignificant across all crime categories. Our confidence intervals rule out reductions in perpetration of 5 percent or more for crime reports and 10 percent or more for criminal charges.

Key Findings

• Guaranteed basic income does not significantly alter criminal behavior in terms of perpetration or victimization.
• High rates of perpetration and victimization were observed among the control group, with nearly 30% charged with a crime and almost 10% experiencing victimization by 2020.
• Alternative interventions such as investments in policing, education, and direct interventions with perpetrators have been shown to effectively reduce crime.